Americans are living through interesting times, economically. The tariffs imposed, delayed, and frequently adjusted by the government have thrown household budgets into confusion. One thing that’s pretty certain is that the baseline tariffs applied to just about every country are likely to raise prices at the grocery store no matter what happens from here (prices could go up by about 3% overall).
For families that are already struggling to make their grocery budgets work, this is unwelcome news, but there is one thing you can do right now—while prices are still largely unaffected by tariff chaos—to help mitigate the impact and protect you from future grocery inflation: start putting together a “tariff pantry.” This involves laying in a supply of nonperishable groceries to lock in today’s prices, and focusing on recipes and meals that will keep your grocery costs down in the coming months. Here's what to consider.
How to plan out your tariff pantry
Setting up a “tariff pantry” requires a little planning. “Take inventory first,” advises food blogger and bestselling cookbook author Kyndra Holley. “Know what you already have and make a list of essentials—stick to long-lasting pantry staples you actually use. Stock up gradually. Monitor prices and buy when it makes sense, not out of fear. Then set a budget and stick to it: Decide how much you can spend and avoid impulse buys or panic stockpiling. Buy what you already use when it’s discounted—don’t get lured by deals on items you wouldn’t otherwise use or need.”
Holley also warns against relying too much on bulk-buying. “Bulk can save money—but only if you’ll use it,” she says. “Always check unit prices and shelf life, and don’t buy more than you can store safely. Use airtight containers and freeze what you can’t use quickly.”
Changing your whole diet and meal-planning approach can help deal with tariff cost increases. “Go more plant-based,” Holley suggests. “Reduce meat and opt for beans, lentils, eggs, and grains. They’re cheaper, filling, and shelf-stable. One-pot, sheet-pan, and slow cooker meals use fewer ingredients and repurpose leftovers easily. And simplify recipes—use fewer, local ingredients. Stick to basic seasonings like garlic, onions, vinegar, and herbs.”
Careful meal prepping can also reduce waste and make the most of items bought in bulk. “When you cook in bulk, you maximize every ingredient, stretching your dollars further,” says Laurie Hise, founder of the budgeting blog Passionate Penny Pincher. “Think buying meat in family packs, prepping meals in batches, and locking in today’s prices before more inflation sneaks in!”
Hise also suggests broadening your grocery store choices. “Don’t put loyalty above savings! Make sure Aldi is in your store rotation, and scan weekly ads to get your must-haves for the cheapest. Eggs are almost always the cheapest there, they have a great Keto and Gluten Free selection, and you can buy meat for cheap on Wednesdays.”
What to stock in a tariff pantry
Although the blanket tariffs imposed will likely raise prices in general, the grocery items most likely to be affected by tariffs include fresh fruits and vegetables (the bulk of which are imported), coffee, cheese, olive oil, seafood, nuts, and candy.
Aside from dodging future price hikes, you want to focus on items in those categories that have lengthy shelf lives and flexible uses. “Stock up on items that are both cost-effective, long-lasting, and versatile,” Holley advises, including:
Grains and legumes, like rice, pasta, lentils, dried beans, and oats.
Canned and frozen goods. “A variety of canned tomatoes (whole, diced, crushed) are perfect for sauces, soups, and stews,” Holley notes. “Canned vegetables and fruits can be stored for long periods, and frozen vegetables are often cheaper than fresh, and retain nutrients. And canned tuna or salmon are protein-rich and shelf-stable.”
Baking ingredients like flour, sugar, yeast, baking soda, baking powder, and cornstarch. “Basic ingredients for a wide range of uses,” notes Holley.
Shelf-stable dairy and dairy alternatives like powdered or evaporated milk can be rehydrated and used for baking, cooking, or even drinking, protecting you from price spikes on the fresh stuff.
Oils and vinegars are likely to go up in price and are useful in cooking, dressing, and preserving food.
Seasonings and spices—the U.S. imports a lot of spices from countries like India, China, and Peru, so they’re vulnerable to tariff price spikes. Laying in a supply of herbs and spices like salt and pepper, garlic and onion powder, paprika, chili powder, ginger, basil, parsley oregano, thyme, as well as soy sauce, hot sauce, mustard, and bouillon cubes will help ride out any disruptions or price hikes in the seasonings aisle.
Nuts and seeds—Holley recommends adding a supply of peanut butter or almond butter. “They’re high in protein, and last a long time.”
Coffee and tea. “Tea is a low-cost way to diversify your drink options,” notes Holley.
Canned meats and proteins. “Canned chicken or Spam can be used in a variety of meals, especially in emergencies,” Holley notes. “And canned ham or sausage can add protein and are good for quick meals.”
Building up a tariff pantry will pay off even if the impact of those tariffs is overestimated—as we all know too well, prices never go down.
